D6.3 National and EU baseline pathway for forest sector

D6.3 National and EU baseline pathway for forest sector

Nov 24, 2025

In recent years, the EU27 forest carbon sink—including forest land and harvested wood products—has shown a marked decline due to natural disturbances, climate change impacts, forest aging and changes in harvest intensity. This weakening sink poses a challenge for EU climate policy. To assess future trajectories of the forest sector, we developed a cross-scale, harmonized Baseline scenario within the ForestNavigator project, representing the development of forest emissions and removals under a continuation of current management
practices and recent wood demand trends, without the introduction of new policy measure after 2023. This Baseline integrates projections from national forest carbon models (CBM-CZ, CBM-IE, CBM-IT, Heureka) and the EU-level GLOBIOM–G4M–X modelling framework.

D6.3 National and EU baseline pathway for forest sector

D6.4 Report on modelling the EU forests in a multisectoral context

Nov 24, 2025

Task 6.4 of the ForestNavigator project focuses on developing a robust and integrated modelling toolbox to assess the climate mitigation potential of the EU forest-based sector. Building on the conceptual framework of Task 6.1, the toolbox enhances existing models by addressing key limitations in representing climate change impacts, forest disturbances, harvested wood product dynamics, and cross-sectoral policy interactions. At its core, the toolbox integrates the GLOBIOM/G4M-X modelling framework, which combines economic land-use modelling with detailed forest management simulations that now include climate-induced risks and adaptive responses.