Nov 24, 2025
In recent years, the EU27 forest carbon sink—including forest land and harvested wood products—has shown a marked decline due to natural disturbances, climate change impacts, forest aging and changes in harvest intensity. This weakening sink poses a challenge for EU climate policy. To assess future trajectories of the forest sector, we developed a cross-scale, harmonized Baseline scenario within the ForestNavigator project, representing the development of forest emissions and removals under a continuation of current management
practices and recent wood demand trends, without the introduction of new policy measure after 2023. This Baseline integrates projections from national forest carbon models (CBM-CZ, CBM-IE, CBM-IT, Heureka) and the EU-level GLOBIOM–G4M–X modelling framework.
Nov 24, 2025
Task 6.4 of the ForestNavigator project focuses on developing a robust and integrated modelling toolbox to assess the climate mitigation potential of the EU forest-based sector. Building on the conceptual framework of Task 6.1, the toolbox enhances existing models by addressing key limitations in representing climate change impacts, forest disturbances, harvested wood product dynamics, and cross-sectoral policy interactions. At its core, the toolbox integrates the GLOBIOM/G4M-X modelling framework, which combines economic land-use modelling with detailed forest management simulations that now include climate-induced risks and adaptive responses.
Nov 3, 2025
This report describes the development of the MESMER-L-X emulator. We analyzed multiple COSMO-CLM² regional climate model simulations under different forest scenarios, which provided the foundation for developing an emulator that accurately predicts local direct temperature effects from forest changes. The tool successfully reproduces key outcomes from the original climate simulations and offers a fast and reliable method of assessing climate
impacts related to different forest management strategies and has further potential for extension with additional simulation datasets. This capability will be harnessed to support European forest policy pathways modelling.
Aug 22, 2025
This deliverable describes the input data and protocol for developing the ForestNavigator climate-sensitive models. The deliverable outlines the procedure to generate the novel forest structure data, based on national forest inventories, to initialize the detailed process-based models. Next, the deliverable presents the simulation protocol used to forecast forest dynamics in Europe under alternative climate change scenarios and the outputs of the simulations of the detailed process-based model until the end of the century. Finally, the emulator constructed based on the detailed model simulations is presented and demonstrated.
Jul 28, 2025
This report presents an updated EU scale forestry cost model. This update is designed to more comprehensively capture relevant management activities such as regeneration and forest roads. Unlike previous models, which focused mainly on rotational forestry and timber supply, the updated model incorporates alternative management systems such as continuous cover forestry (CCF), distinguishes afforestation between tree species groups, and better accounts for spatial variability across the EU27. Furthermore, the model generates labor demand indicators, enabling integration with broader socioeconomic analyses and macroeconomic tools like GLOBIOM and MAGNET.
May 22, 2025
This deliverable describes the i3PGmiX model. The model is based on the 3PGmix process-based forest growth model and includes developments on the representation of photosynthesis, autotrophic respiration, natural mortality, forest management, as well as soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Besides a technical model description for future users, the deliverable also includes a proof of concept where the i3PGmiX model results for a simulation of climate change impacts on forest growth in Europe, as well as the impact of wind and bark beetle disturbance activity.
